I meant for this to be one of my "links," but I decided it needed independent acknowledgement--both as a useful analysis of the state of American politics right now, especially in the role of religion in American politics; and as an example of how to give evidence for the independent power of religion as a political force.

Here is an interesting serious analysis by a Brookings Institution scholar of white evangelicals and their role in the GOP electorate.  Two things stood out for me in this.  First, the serious differences across generations here.  Thus,

[a]mong registered voters under 40 in the survey, 8% were white evangelicals compared to 19% among those over 40, pointing to a long-term problem for Republicans without a more diverse electoral coalition.” 

That portends a major challenge for any reliance on white evangelicals, but the challenge would seem to be most serious about fifteen to twenty years from now.  Second, there’s this, about the power of evangelical thought as a religious fact:

Being an evangelical helps to fortify the issue alignment between the Republican Party and their base of Republican voters, especially on abortion. However, evangelical identity has an even more important role among voters outside of the Republican partisan base. Evangelical identity has its largest and most electorally relevant impact by encouraging issue alignment between unaffiliated voters and the Republican Party orthodoxy. Even among white registered Democrats, being an evangelical moves the needle at the margins for the Republican Party, at least enough to secure a small percentage of votes with potential to change the outcome of close elections.

This is interesting: I read it as saying something like this: however much you think the white evangelicals are the GOP's base, they function in another way as well--by gathering in support for the GOP at election time through other idioms of reasoning, particularly among their non-GOP identifying neighbors who are also evangelical, or at least evangelical-proximate.

As I said, that's interesting.  It means that, in important ways, the GOP's most fervent "base" is also among their most effective their outward-facing salesmen.  And the pitch they're making is not one that uses GOP ideology, but one that uses evangelical theology, or at least (to avoid complimenting it too much) a white evangelical theological idiom.

This outreach matters, and matters decisively, at least in tight elections, as most are right now:

Given the number of white evangelicals in the electorate (according to CNN exit polls, they composed 38% of the North Carolina electorate in 2016), the slim historical margins of victory in swing states, and the impact associated with being an evangelical on partisan preferences, Republicans are reliant on the group’s support and mobilization in order to accumulate 270 Electoral College votes. Though President Trump is a candidate whose personal behavior has often been at odds with the values espoused by many evangelicals, any potential path he has to remain in the White House after January 20, 2021 must pass between the pews of white evangelical churches. In turn, Democratic Party leaders have opportunities to interrupt that passage by paying attention to evangelicals, especially unaffiliated evangelicals persuadable to add their votes to the 2020 Democratic coalition.

So, a couple things: (1) good info about white evangelicals and their role in the GOP, and (2) an interesting observation about the double-facing power of white evangelicals, at the core and (mobilizing their religious idioms) at the margins of the GOP.

And a third thing: maybe religious arguments, especially rival religious arguments, could actually have an effect here.

Just a thought.