I was reading around in the news today, I'm noticing the number of places where people are beginning to act as if everything is going back to normal, and so I wrote the below and shared it with people.

Just a thought:

I think we're seeing, around the world, people decide, "ok, that's it. this pandemic is over." And more and more people emerge out into ever-closer approximations of "before" behavior. Thus the structural efforts at opening restaurants, shops, etc., are inviting us to imagine the danger has passed, and we are accepting that invitation. When I go out on the streets here in the UK, that's the overwhelming vibe I'm getting. And from what I can tell from other places--Russia, the US, elsewhere--that feeling is there, too.

But the danger has not passed. The disease is no less lethal. I recall that several weeks ago, epidemiologists were saying "we're only in the second inning of this pandemic, at best" and I think that is right. The 1918-19 Spanish Flu was worse in the second wave, by far. And the third wave was worse than the first, as well.

We have an all-too-human impatience. We are easily surprised by things, shocked, disturbed by them; but then we settle quickly into an adaptive pattern, and steadily creep back, or pretty quickly snap back, into our old habits and patterns. Humans do that after calamities, like car wrecks or deaths, and after unexpected windfalls, like lottery wins or big promotions. Who we are after major events is surprisingly a lot like who we were _before_ those events. This is human nature. It's mostly a good thing; we are durable, stubborn creatures. We need to plan for the future, and that means thinking the future will be recognizably like the past. And it's what supports our all-too-human impatience at restraints.

But the virus is not human. The virus has an inhuman patience. It is waiting out there, just on the other side of "everything's fine again." Nothing about the danger has changed from two, or three, or four weeks ago. There is no vaccine for this. Treatments are still at a very early stage. We are three or four months into a situation that experts tell us can be expected to last twelve to eighteen months, at best. Many more people are going to die.

I am not an expert in any science. But I do know something about human behavior. Crowds--humans in groups, on the street in the media or on-line--are very good at _communicating_ a sense of reassurance, and a sense of threat. But humans in groups are much less good at _judging_ whether it is wise to feel safe or feel afraid. We take our cues from one another, and that cue-taking can be deeply misleading; it often is. Now more than ever, you need to try to block out the lulling voice of the crowd, luring us into thinking things are ok again, that things are returning to normal, and ask yourself: what do the experts say? Do not be lulled by the fact that "everyone's doing it."

I think we need to recognize our human impatience, but still discipline it, override it. We need to acknowledge the lulling power of the crowd, and resist it. Because things are not normal. They're not going back to normal, not for a year or more. Go out on walks; go to the park; go running. Talk to friends. Get takeout. But don't think we're on a swift return to normality. Avoid enclosed spaces without excellent ventilation. Keep social distancing. Keep wearing masks (for other people--there's not a chance in hell they'll help you avoid catching this). Keep washing your hands. June is no different than April; July will be no different than March. Keep being very, very careful.